Macroeconomic Granger-causal Dynamics in Croatia: Evidence Based on a Vector Error-correction Modelling Analysis

In the paper the causal relationships between money and other macroeconomic variables such as output, interest rate, prices and exchange rate in Croatia were analysed. The basic principle of Grangercausality analysis is to test whether past values of monetary variable help to explain current values of output. Multivariate causality tests were performed in a vector autoregression (VAR) model. The analysis also made use of the techniques variance decompositions (VDCs) and impulse response functions (IRFs) to unveil Granger causality in macroeconomic activity in a dynamic context. In the short-run variables interest rate and nominal exchange rate stand out econometrically exogenous. In the empirical period these variables were relatively the leading variables. They were initial receptors of exogenous shocks to the long run equilibrium. The causal relationships detected among the variables indicate that money supply is neutral in the short run.